Wall Street suffered yet another big drop last week, with investors worried about the spreading fallout from the credit crisis..
Wall Street suffered yet another big drop last week, with investors worried about the spreading fallout from the credit crisis at banks, and about a dollar that just keeps getting weaker. The Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 360 points on Wednesday, coincidently just about matching its post FOMC drop on Thursday November 1st says Michael Wright. A lot of familiar worries tormented investors, including comments by New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, about conflicts of interest within the mortgage industry, that have increased the declines among bank stocks.
Meanwhile, the dollar swooned amid speculation that China will seek to diversify some of its foreign currency stockpiles beyond the greenback. General Motors Corp further dampened sentiment by posting a record loss tied to an accounting adjustment.
The fear with a huge drop like last weeks 2% pull-back is whether it is part of a "correction", which is a 10% pullback in stock prices, or that it could be the beginning of a bear market. With the huge volatility that has swept Wall Street since the summer, and triple-digit moves in the Dow becoming commonplace, no one can be sure.
Still, the concern on the Street is that the extent of the fallout from the credit market crisis, which has led to billions of dollars in losses for major banks and investment firms, is still not yet known. With Citigroup Inc. announcing it needed to take an additional $8 billion to $11 billion in write downs, investors are becoming increasingly uneasy about stocks, and the economy as a whole.
The economy question can be potentially answered as soon as the retailers start releasing their holiday sales. These figures will show how the consumer has adjusted to the tighter credits, and much lower house values. If the consumer spent like nothing happened, then the economy is just fine. However it's the other scenario in which the consumers spend more conservatively, and a lot more discounts are needed to attract them to part with their already stretched dollar, which scares the traders the most.
With the above situation, the long-term direction of the SP500 is a murky one, with each side being able to provide both technical and fundamental support for why they are right.
With BetOnMarkets.com you can avoid having to guess which side is right. The company provides an "up or down" bet, which allows a trader to be covered on both sides of the market, as long as the market touches either trigger within the predetermined time.
A 20-day up or down bet on the SP500, with 50 pts each way from the spot trigger, could potentially return 13%. This means you expect the S&P 500 to move 50 points in either direction over the next 20 days.
The Bear Awakes
